UTEP study forecasts favorable economic conditions for El Paso in next 30 years


EL PASO, TX (KTSM) — The University of Texas at El Paso released its projections on El Paso’s economy for the next 30 years.

According to UTEP’s Border Region Modeling Project (BRMP), projections are favorable for the border region in the coming years, despite seeing broad economic hardships during the pandemic.

“Although the Borderplex regional economy is currently being battered by the unexpected global COVID-19 recession, long-run prospects for the region remain favorable,” reads the report. “Historically, complete recoveries from severe downturns such as the current lockdown recession require five years.”

The new report is the first long-run economic forecast published by UTEP since 2010. It is co-authored by UTEP economics professor Tom Fullerton and BRMP associate director and staff economist Steven Fullerton.

The report includes the region’s demographics, labor markets, commercial activity, economic performance and more.

The report says that the population of El Paso will surpass the 1 million mark in 2041 and approach 1.1 million by 2049.

Demographic expansion, coupled with higher incomes, will cause the number of households in the Sun City to reach 348,600 by the end of the forecast period. Ballooning demand for information services will also cause El Paso County college enrollments to grow steadily.

Total employment is expected to exceed 591,000 jobs by 2049, but aggregate payrolls are projected to fall in three sectors: manufacturing, retail and federal military employment. Sectors where payrolls are expected to swell include health care and social services, hotel and food services, finance, insurance, and real estate, as well as transportation and warehousing.

Tom Fullerton indicated that the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will lead more companies, such as Amazon, to invest in El Paso.

Per capita personal income is poised to eclipse $124,000 in both El Paso and Las Cruces; El Paso personal income will exceed $136 billion, while gross commercial activity is projected to exceed $43.3 billion by 2049. Wage and salary disbursements are forecast to reach $66 billion during this period.

The BRMP report also highlights long-run trends for El Paso housing prices, non-residential construction, commerce, water consumption, transportation and international border crossings.

The report stated that the new long-run forecast provides useful information for all companies and government agencies who face long-term lending, borrowing and planning decisions.

Download the full report:

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