An Upper Wave Increases Borderland Heavy Rainfall Chances

Weather Talk

POSTED: Tuesday, July 15, 2014 - 12:06pm

UPDATED: Wednesday, July 16, 2014 - 12:02pm

The tail end of an upper wave becomes trigger mechanism for storms with heavy rain rainfall and area flooding Wednesday

There as been much needed rainfall around the Borderland and the metro areas this past weekend through Monday. Good news! We have more headed our way! Most of Las Cruces received good, soaking rain on Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday! Parts of East and northeast El Paso received storms that dropped over a half inch of rainfall both Sunday and Monday. Anthony, Canutillo, the Lower Valley, and Fabens have all received some rain relief. The monsoon season is full swing with abundant moisture across the Borderland through Friday!

Today’s "Weather Talk" I will give you a closer look at the next “Week’s Worth of Weather”.

Isolated thunderstorms will be the rule tonight with more numerous, scattered storms on Wednesday and Thursday. These storms will have the capability of producing some heavy rainfall and because they will be” slow movers”, there could be some isolated area flooding.There is an upper level wave scheduled to travel south out of the central Rocky Mountains and the tail end will sweep through our region increasing the number of Borderland storms. The potential for flooding will be greater because the wave will be a trigger mechanism and give lift and instability to our already very humid air mass. This wave will pull in a “back door” front late on Thursday into Friday.

This weak cool front is forecast to stall right over the borderland. This front carries in even more moisture and this stalled front could cause even more flooding across our area. The ground may get soaked at the beginning of the week and become saturated. Heavy rainfall towards the end of the week on top of saturated ground will make it flood more easily. Some severe storms on Wednesday through Friday could also produce strong, damaging down burst winds.

Then, a strong upper level high pressure will come move right over New Mexico starting on late Friday into early next week. This Ridge will push the monsoon off to our west and really heat up the Borderland. There will be less numerous mainly because isolated storms will be off to our west and over the area mountains. This high will really dry us out and heat El Paso and locations near the border into low 100’s on Sunday through Tuesday. Isolated storms will move closer late on  Monday and Tuesday.

Tuesday-Turning partly cloudy, breezy later with a 30% storm chance High: 94º

Tuesday Night- Partly cloudy, breezy early 20% storm chance Low: 71º

Wednesday - Partly cloudy, breezy, 30% chance some heavy rainfall, flooding High: 93º

Wednesday Night –Partly to mostly cloudy skies, breezy 40% chance of strong storms Low: 72º

Thursday -Partly cloudy, breezy with a 30% chance of scattered storms High: 96º

Thursday Night – Partly cloudy, breezy early with a 20% rain chance a Low: 73º

Friday-–Partly cloudy, low end breezy, 25% chance of late day storms and a seasonal High: 95º

Friday Night – Partly cloudy skies, breezy early, 20% rain chance Low: 75º

Saturday-Turning partly cloudy later with a hot, mainly mountain rain, 10% rain chance High: 97º

Saturday Night- Early clouds, a warm overnight Low: 76º'

Sunday- Patchy clouds, with a hot High: 100º!

Sunday Night-Evening slight 10% rain chance, breezy with a warm overnight warm Low: 78º

Monday- Breezy, puffy P.M.clouds and 10% rain chance, Hot! High: 102º

Monday Night-Partly cloudy, breezy , 10% rain chance, warm Low: 79º

Tuesday-Partly cloudy, low end breezy, humid with a 10% late storm chance High: 100º

Tuesday Night-Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of evening storms Low: 77º

Chuck DeBroder, Chief Meteorologist

KTSM, NewsChannel 9, NBC, El Paso, TX


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