An Overnight Cool Front Increases Borderland Heavy Rain and Flooding Potential
POSTED: Wednesday, July 30, 2014 - 11:55am
UPDATED: Wednesday, July 30, 2014 - 3:14pm
A cool front will push in early Thursday carrying in abundant moisture and increasing the flooding potential into the weekend
Wednesday, July 30th, 2014 — The monsoon season is heading into its peak in August with plenty of abundant moisture to fuel area storms. There has been more much needed rainfall around the Borderland and the metro areas the past couple of days. Most of Las Cruces and the village of Dona Ana received heavy rainfall, over .50” in some places late Monday night. Northeast El Paso, East El Paso and Central part of the city received .25” to .50” early Tuesday morning and Las Cruces got hit again with .10” to .25” Tuesday evening.
We have seen some street and arroyo flooding from these storms, but a cool front backing in Thursday will really increase our heavy rainfall potential and the possibility of flooding. In today’s "Weather Talk" I will give you a closer look at the next “Week’s Worth of Weather”.
The weather window of Thursday through Saturday looks to be the time frame for heavy rainfall and possible area flash flooding. A cool front will push in from the east overnight into Thursday morning and will be all the way to the Arizona border by Thursday afternoon! Extra surface moisture will accompany this front and the rainfall potential for area storms will be at 1.2” to 1.4” into Friday. The frontal boundary will be a trigger to lift up moisture and fire off thunderstorms when it pushes in Thursday and when it swings back to our east Friday into Saturday.
The computer predication models show a upper level short wave disturbance tracking in from the north late Friday. It appears right now that Friday may be the peak where the Borderland sees the most rainfall and flooding of the three days.
Sunday and Monday should see a slight reduction in thunderstorm coverage, there may still be some localized heavy rainfall and associated flooding. Wherever the ground is saturated from the previous three days of rain, those areas will be more likely to flood faster. The computer prediction models show an upper level high forming a ridge from southern Colorado down to northern Mexico and not allowing that drier Continental east flow to erode the moisture. There will be slightly lower possible rainfall amounts.
Tuesday and Wednesday, the upper level ridge of high pressure rebuilds stronger over our region combined with increasing upper level and surface westerly flow this will dry our atmosphere even more.
Wednesday –Late clouds, 20% chance of a late day isolated storm High: 97º
Wednesday Night –Partly cloudy, breezy with a 20% chance of isolated storms Low: 71º
Thursday -Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy with a 40% chance some heavy rainfall, flooding High: 91º
Thursday Night – Mostly cloudy, breezy with a 50% chance some heavy rainfall, and area flooding Low: 68º
Friday-–Mostly cloudy, low end breezy, 50% chance some heavy rainfall, area flooding High: 87º
Friday Night – Partly cloudy skies, breezy early, 40% chance some heavy rainfall, flooding Low: 67º
Saturday-Mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance some heavy rainfall, flooding High: 88º
Saturday Night-Mostly cloudy, 40% chance some heavy rainfall, localized flooding Low: 69º'
Sunday- Mostly cloudy, breezy with a 30% chance of area storms, High: 85º!
Sunday Night-Partly Cloudy, breezy with a 30% chance of area storms Low: 70º
Monday- Breezy, puffy P.M.. clouds and 20% late day rain chance High: 88º
Monday Night-Partly cloudy, breezy, 20% isolated storm chance, warm Low: 71º
Tuesday-Mostly sunny, low end breezy with a 10% of a late day storm High: 92º
Tuesday Night-Mostly Sunny with P.M.. clouds and a 10% chance of evening storms Low: 73º